Giá trị phối hợp của chỉ số NLR, CRP huyết tương và thang điểm BISAP trong tiên lượng mức độ nặng và nguy cơ tử vong ở bệnh nhân viêm tụy cấp tại Khoa Cấp cứu - Bệnh viện Trung ương Quân đội 108

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the prognostic performance of the combined NLR-CRP-BISAP model in predicting disease severity and mortality among patients with acute pancreatitis. Subject and method: This descriptive, prospective, longitudinal study included patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to the Emergency Department of 108 Military Central Hospital between June 2025 and April 2026. The NLR, plasma CRP level, and BISAP score were assessed within the first 24 hours after admission. The prognostic performance of individual parameters and combined models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and the area under the curve (AUC). Result: Among 119 enrolled patients, 23 (19.3%) developed severe acute pancreatitis and 5 (4.2%) died during hospitalization. The combined NLR-CRP-BISAP model demonstrated superior prognostic performance compared with the individual parameters alone. For prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, the combined model achieved an AUC of 0.803 (95% CI, 0.688 - 0.917). For prediction of in-hospital mortality, the model yielded an AUC of 0.984 (95% CI, 0.962 - 1.000). Conclusion: The combination of NLR, CRP, and the BISAP score improved early prediction of disease severity and mortality risk in patients with acute pancreatitis at hospital admission.