ISSN: 1859 - 2872
The prognostic values of the PNED scale in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding at 115 People Hospital
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Abstract
Objective: To evaluate the PNED scale in the prognosis of outcomes in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Subject and method: Prospective Cohort studied 193 non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding patients treated at the Department of Gastroenterology, 115 People Hospital from January 2021 to June 2022. Calculated the PNED score, area under the ROC curve (AUC) to determine the prognostic value of the PNED scale. Result: In 193 patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding, the male to female ratio was 2.72/1, with a mean age of 60.80 ± 13.31. The proportion of patients required blood transfusion accounted for 77.72% of the patients required blood transfusion, 35.75% underwent interventional endoscopy, 6.22% experienced rebleeding; 35.75% interventional endoscopic, 6.22% rebleeding and 2.07% required surgery conversion. The mortality rate was 5.69%. The predictive performance of the PNED scale for medical intervention in general was 0.614 (95% CI: 0.54-0.683, p=0.04), for predictive prognosis for rebleeding was 0.903 (95% CI: 0.852-0.941, p=0.0001), for prediction of blood transfusion intervention was 0.726 (95% CI: 0.657-0.787, p=0.0001), but not predictive of prognosis interventional endoscopic. For mortality outcomes, the PNED scale had AUC = 0.897 (95% CI: 0.845-0.936, p=0.0001). With using a cut-off point of 6, the outcome results in a sensitivity of 81.82%, specificity of 82.97%, positive predictive value of 22.5%, and negative predictive value of 98.7%. Conclusion: The PNED scale had a exhibited high potential for in predicting recurrent bleeding and mortality in patients with Non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.
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References
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